Property Prices :- Can this come true?

The last leg has already been performed and now waiting for the drop below it goes up again.. can ? I am not chartist.. anyhow draw one. So if you look at it, the retracement to the 61.8% level will equate to roughly a 20% Drop in prices from current level.

Please ignore the prices in the graph below. I was doing some simple up down to see upside versus downside. But from graph, I found there is a pyschological barrier in humans on the downside after a big upside move. The fall seems to be tagged around half of the previous Rise. Just my own guesstimate. Witchery and heresy!

So, if I assumed this is the top, then we have around 20-27.5% fall before it goes flat for a few years and go up parabolic again.

Here is how much Bishan 8 would be if we adhere to my model.

So , to buy or not to buy? Just cover your backside and the upside will take care of itself. If you can find someone selling Bishan 8 at $900 and below, it is a good buy. Though highly unlikely since those who bought in 1997 would have seen all the wind and tides, this type of 25% fall is sup sup water. And they could have break even with all the rentals collected thru the years. See! Property is such a good investment if you have holding power and will have a higher probability of a positive outcome. If you bought a Bishan condo at $1600psf, a drop of 25% will bring you to $1200psf. And then you will have to compete for buyers searching for value and $900psf versus $1200psf, new vs old 99LH. And for own stay, if you can stomach the downside, what's stopping you? :)

Property wins the crown again.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-07-31/asian-millionaires-firing-bankers-take-control-of-wealth.html Read the article from bloomberg. I don't know how much clearer the path to riches for NORMAL people is thru' property investment over the long term. I have to emphasize normal people. People who do not possess insider knowledge of an industry, a company or adept at picking stocks. Another relevant article is the number of property billionaires/millionaires in the singapore forbes rich list this year again. For your first million, I think the probability will be higher from your property investment. But of course.. like stocks, you need to search for the one that is undervalued with respect to the others. It must be in a good growth region, etc etc.

SGD Appreciation

I read this guy's thoughts from forum and I find it's very enlightening and just got to put it down here for future references.

Big problem for Singapore : Stronger Sing Dollar and Higher inflation...

Happily I go to Malaysia change my S$1 to $2.52+ ringgit every few weeks to spend...however, some Singaporean ya-ya-papaya think that strong S$ means Singapore economy more powerful or gaining strength on Malaysia and so on. This is the view of IGNORANT people.

1. Why did MAS allow Sing$ to go up so much despite negative GDP growth last quarter?

There is very high inflation in Singapore and raising the S$ makes the imported component of the CPI lower thus lowering the overall inflation figure to 5.3% which is already quite bad. Imagine at 6% our inflation will be higher than 3-month spanish bonds!!!

This is a sign the Singapore govt is losing control of domestic price inflation and using the S$ to make imports cheap to hide inflation pressures.

2. Our export sector is hurting and property bubble is prop up to keep us out of recession? 

Why you think MAS allow 50 year home loan. If property sector shrink immediately Singapore will be in recession because export sector is weak. The govt is just playing the number to prevent a recession by artificially propping up property sector.

3. As for some people think S$ strong almighty against the ringgit means Singapore BETTER

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/malaysia/inflation-cpi

Actually Malaysian inflation rate is 1.7% vs 5% in Singapore. Malaysian economic growth is 5% vs negative for Singapore last quarter.

The way Singaporeans can gain from this is stronger Sing$ is to go to Malaysia to spend their money. But you cannot spend every S$1 in Malaysia no matter what most of your money has to be spent n Singapore unless you MOVE TO MALAYSIA. That means you're exposed to high inflation while Malaysians are not despite their weaker ringgit. The weaker ringgit means Malaysian exports are stronger.

4. Strong S$ despite strong outward remittance flow=high dependency on capital inflows of hot money, tax evaders and money launderers

Half the workforce is foreign. They feed their families back home in Philipines, India and China. This means there is high remittance flow as these workers convert their salary to foreign currencies putting downward pressure on S$. Our trade deficit is very large.

To balance our accounts we depend on rich people from India, China, USA to shift money here to avoid tax in their home countries. Some of the money (like Ma Chi's) are of unclear origin. This means Singapore is forced to keep taxes on wealth artificially low even as income gap balloons. If billionaires stop parking their money here, the merry-go-round stops and things can sink FAST.

Singapore economy is propped up artificially. It is not healthy. We have no Samsung, Acer or HTC. We are flushing the economy with all sorts of money avoiding taxes, running from their own govt. This means we try to makan the highly corrupt western banking pie as western banks fail - this is likely done by deregulation and allowing more shadow activities in Singapore. If Obama wins again, he is likely to shut down this type of parasitic business growing like cancer and breeding the most foul type of financial businesses and humans.

Ok...next week I happily go spend my S$ in Malaysia...but I not so gong kia to think it is because things are so steady poon pi pi in Singapore.

Last edited by TopSageTemp; Today at 08:42 AM.

As for the investment type, I would still prefer properties.