The only thing that matters in Residential Property Investment

Actually all these talk to justify why must buy properties is just to please people who need factual evidence.

I tell you... the only thing that affect property prices is Confidence of the Market you are in invested in.

1) Supply and Demand? Irrelevant -> you know in 2009, we talk abt oversupply in 2011. Prices still went up (confidence in the system was strong. Recovery, bright blue sky) Now in 2011, we talk about massive oversupply in 2013.

2) Low or High Interest Rate? Irrelevant -> you know prices climb amid high interest rate of 4% from 2003-2006? But it dropped in 2008-2009(when interest rate was reducing) because of the crisis (confidence eroded in the system).

3) Rental yield? Irrelevant. CCR has a lot of properties that are not yield-supportive. In fact, a lot are left vacant. Again, Confidence in the system that ppty prices will go up.

Only thing relevant is get a good unit, good location and most important TIME YOUR ENTRY.. If you don't know how, don't chase the market. just let the recession come to you then you start buying. Now you enter, you got 50/50 chance. During recession you enter, you raise your success chance to 80%(cannot say above that coz you never know). But if you really want to time more perfectly, watch the govt counter-measures for property speculation. Once IAS, DPS, 90% LTV all these start coming in, you better be in the market.

Above are all based on my own recollection of events. No research are made to ensure the integrity and accuracy of the data provided... hehe...

Portfolio Update July 2011

No charts, No returns.

I have cashed out of all my equities as of Friday 5th August 2011. Dividends collected was $127k but by year end, I should be in the region of $160-170k with my deposits and bonds.

Based on my gut instinct (which is wrong most of the time), I bailed out myself. Did I just sold into the Selling Climax? ..hehe...

A confluence of factors just make the future looks bleak. Upside is limited in my opinion. Downside is not.

1) A lot of countries are downgrading their own economic forcasts
2) A lot of analysts are downgrading the target prices of companies they covered
3) The start of financial institutions slashing jobs in the major economies and moving part of it to Asia.
4) Indecisiveness and Lack of Conviction as shown by the actions of ECB on Debts and Europeans countries on austerity measures
5) Same can be said of the US of A . But their hands are tied with the ultra-low rates and they have already unleased 2 monetary easing. It does not work. Will a third one worked?

After so many fake scares since 2009, this time, this one... really scared the shit out of me to compel me into action.

As with all things, this is the view now.. Until my guts starts feeling again, I think I'll step aside and watch the market. I will be BACK! Maybe sooner than I think.

无股一身轻，无须太操心。
自救一夜眠，又能见周公。

Portfolio Update June 2011

2011 Year to date (YTD) Return Portfolio -0.91% Equities -5.63% Dividend/Interest for 2011    $106,578 Absolute Return Since 11/2007 Portfolio 11.06% Equities 23.39%

Lousy performance by myself. I don't know what to say! :p But to make myself happier, since Nov 2007(when i started the portfolio), I had an equity portfolio XIRR of 8.16% and a total portfolio XIRR of 3.85%. What does this means? It means, I have only tracked the long-term average of 8-10% in equity. The total portfolio XIRR of 3.85% means I have beaten the local deposit rates and I would have done better simply putting all my money into a SGD Corporate Bond like DBS which could yield me more than 4%. But then again, bonds will never give you equity-like return of 8-10% :) and my weightage of bonds/cash makes performance a drag on the total portfolio XIRR.

I've been wondering... how can a bull market end this year or next when it haven't actually felt like a bull since end 2010. Is the herd on the pessimistic side? Does it even feel like a bull. I only felt the bull in the property market for the last 3 yrs. Time for equities to outperform? :)