Portfolio Update April 2010

2010 Year to date (YTD) Return Portfolio 3.95% Equity(Include Funds)  4.29% Direct Shareholding 7.42% Dividend/Coupon/Interest received for 2010 $42,981 Absolute Return Since Nov 2007 Portfolio 9.04% Equity(Include Funds) 20.31% Direct shareholding 22.43%

1) Fear in the market once more. The Greece issue have brought up fear of a contagion on sovereign debts. Defaults are not likely as government interventions have proven to be the defacto way of solving monetary issues. Debt issuances thru' a fiat currency system supported by the Euro is sound as long as Greece guarantees the debt payment thru' taxations and prudent financial measures (that's why Euro wants Greece to adopt austerity measures). Though inflation becomes a side-effect as paper money losses its value.  I am still long in the market as I believe this is possibly a correction in the on-going bull. But I will stick to proper money management strategy and adhere to my trailing cut loss for my positions. Most times, market perception creates trend we can either go against or go along with. 

Portfolio Update August 2009

Portfolio Cumulative Return since 2007 : -0.06%
Equity Cumulative Return since 2007 : +3.47%
Dividend/Coupon/Interest received for 2009 : SGD$64,061

P/S :
1) Bought into SHK Corporate Arbitrage Fund with John paulson as underlying Fund manager.
2) Tendered SPC shares for a total gain of 90%.
3) Renewed Aud deposit for 3 months at 3.05%.
4) Sell out of Cathay Pacific Bond yielding 3.8% and intend to use the money to buy into equities yielding more than 5%. Current portfolio is yielding sub-2% level as a portion of the portfolio is in non-dividend paying funds.
5) Speculative play on Citigroup at average cost of $4.40.

Portfolio Update January 2009

Return YTD : -12.41%

I have put some money to work in equities and corporate convertible bonds. Will be putting some more over the next 2 months (maybe 8%) buying up bonds and equities.

Portfolio Update December 2008

YTD Returns : -10.44%

The market seems to have reach a bottom since Oct '08 as the portfolio value is not going down as fast as before.

However, hedge funds I owned have all suspended redemption till Jan/Feb '09. So, Jan/Feb '09 should set the trend for next year. If hedge fund redemption continue, I'm sure you will see more selling in the market.

This downturn have left me to re-examine my strategy. My intended allocation was to be 50% equities/alternatives and 50% in bonds. However, should I even be 50% in equities and alternatives as an asset class since I would be very comfortable receiving all the coupons from the bonds. The coupons payment would put the portfolio in the highest income bracket if it should be taxable as an individual. So, why am I in equities at all?? :-s

JOKE - The Best Definitions for Market Terms!

Image via WikipediaA fun email circulating trading desks, worthwhile as an informal measure of sentiment:

CEO --Chief Embezzlement Officer.

CFO-- Corporate Fraud Officer.

BULL MARKET -- A random market movement causing an investor to mistake himself for a financial genius.

BEAR MARKET -- A 6 to 18 month period when the kids get no allowance, the wife gets no jewelry, and the husband gets no sex.

VALUE INVESTING -- The art of buying low and selling lower.

P/E RATIO -- The percentage of investors wetting their pants as the market keeps crashing.

BROKER -- What my broker has made me.

STANDARD & POOR -- Your life in a nutshell.

STOCK ANALYST -- Idiot who just downgraded your stock.

STOCK SPLIT -- When your ex-wife and her lawyer split your assets equally between themselves.

FINANCIAL PLANNER -- A guy whose phone has been disconnected.

MARKET CORRECTION -- The day after you buy stocks.

CASH FLOW -- The movement your money makes as it disappears down the toilet.

YAHOO -- What you yell after selling it to some poor sucker for $240 per share.

WINDOWS -- What you jump out of when you're the sucker who bought Yahoo @ $240 per share.

INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR -- Past year investor who's now locked up in a nuthouse.

PROFIT -- An archaic word no longer in use.

To Diversify or Not?

Image by Getty Images via Daylife I have been emphasizing the need to diversify your investments and not to concentrate most of it on just one single investment.

Yes, there will be investors who quote wisdom from warrent buffett or other stock gurus on the merits of concentrated investment and knowing your investment real well. That diversification is actually an excuse for ignorance.

But how many of these so called amateur investors think they are really in the class of the gurus? Unless they have proven themselves using a diversified portfolio that they have a knack for picking good companies (in which case, the overall stock portfolio would rise in value as well), they should not attempt to do concentrated investment.

Also, there have been numerous studies by private banks that a lot of entrepreneurs and CEOs have a bulk of their wealth tied to the fortunes of their companies (in the form of shares & options). As can be seen during the past few crisis, a concentrated holding (even for CEOs and chairman who knows their company and industry inside out) could not prevent the erosion of their wealth. In some cases, the company going bust (some internet companies, some banks) have allowed their employees to go from millionaires to zero-aire.

So, before you start having this fantasy that you are in the league of the investment gurus, please validate that statement first. Are you in that league yet?

For myself, I admit I'm not in the league of the gurus and to know I am not and to implement a safer risk-managed investment strategy will lead me to multiply my investment portfolio slowly but steadily.

Investments That Gives Dividends!

Image via Wikipedia When you buy into an equity investment (stocks or funds), you are mainly buying into the potential for capital appreciation and not so much for its dividend. However, when choosing an investment, a safer bet would be to go with the one with a consistent and sustainable dividend policy. Studies have shown this is a good barometer of future capital appreciation of an investment.

Dividends: Between 1872 and 2002, stocks returned an average compound rate of 9%. Earnings-per-share (EPS) grew at 3.3% and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios grew at 0.7%. Reinvested stock dividends contributed 4.8% - more than half of the total return. Favor a stock with dividends for this very reason. You'll get paid to hold a stock while the market takes time to recognize its value

Further, to accelerate your capital appreciation, you should re-invest the dividends. Buying into more shares of the investment using the dividends received will enable you to receive more dividends in future. This is how compounding works. This also utilizes Dollar-Cost Averaging(DCA) as you are buying into the investment at different prices.

This should be the strategy for anyone who is between 20-50 years old as you have time on your side for your investments to do its compounding magic.

The end goal would be to create a dividend revenue stream from the investments that you can live on by 60years old.

If you do not intend to pass all of your wealth to the next generation, then you could also opt to liquidate part of your investment as and when needed for high-ticket purchases or lifestyle aspirations. Though you will need to plan properly as this will reduce your cashflow from the dividends.

The Joseph Cycle - Simon Sim

Image by alemdag via Flickr A nice quote I got from "The Joseph Cycle" by Simon Sim.

The more you save, the more you will have. Saving creates wealth; wealth attracts more wealth. Thus, it is said, "Money makes money!".

Anyway, the Joseph Cycle is a good read for people who are interested in economic cycles and how it can help in stock investment. For those in a hurry, the gist of the book is in credentialing and validating the Biblical Joseph Cycle of 7 Fat years and 7 lean years. The Joseph Cycle equates to a 7 year bull and 7 year bear in the stock market. After which, Simon mentions that for most, we have only 2 opportunities within our lifetime to take advantage of these cycles. The beginning of the last bull started in 2001 and will end somewhere inside 2008. After which, there will be the 7 years bear from 2009-2015. Thus, the year 2015 will be the bottom as well as the next start of a bull and if we believe in the Joseph Cycle, we will do well to invest during the start of the bull and hold on till the end of the cycle, ignoring most crisis along the way. But he does mentioned that you can still invest even if it's a bear cycle as long as the stock is undervalued or a crisis present an opportunity.

My conclusion? Well, it means that life carries on and we still will have to stick to our usual investment philosophy of asset allocation. For stocks, buying quality companies at fair prices giving fair dividends. For mutual funds, just let it grow thru' the dividends reinvested (since the fund manager is supposed to be doing the stock picking for you).

Don't Lose your pants! Look at the percentage loss not the absolute loss

Image by Renegade98 via Flickr During this hard times in the market, people feel compelled to sell out their investment.

They panicked when they see losses of $3~4k in their individual stock and maybe a loss of $30k in their portfolio.

However, you should only sell if you feel the investment has served its purpose or the price is right or the business behind the investment does not have a compelling future.

One way to mitigate the desire to sell is to look at the percentage loss instead... so the $30k loss could only be a blip in your portfolio as it is only a 3% loss. If you believe the market returns an average of 6-10% per annum, then a 3% loss is not really a cause for alarm.

My investment portfolio is currently down 2.6% and that translates to a loss in the region of $200k, but I'm holding tight.. Are you?