Sunday, September 13, 2015

Implication of PAP Landslide for Your Investment.

After the landslide victory by the incumbent, how do we position our investment?

The resounding mandate given by the people means the government can proceed with its current goal of managing the Singapore with ECONOMIC GROWTH as its priority.

The government will continue with its way of increasing GDP thru' increase labour  participation.

Some things that will happen :-
1) 6.9mil population is a GO-Ahead. I would think 10 mil population is the stretch goal the government is aiming for within the next decade.
2) Foreign labour quotas will once again be relaxed to cope and free market mechanism will be at work. Your wages will have to be competitive vis-a-vis the foreigners.
3) Infrastructure spending will be full-steam ahead to cope with the increase in population.

Implication for investment :-
1) Properties will be a good long-term investment once again. Your $1mil property (at 6 mil population) will become $2mil property (at 10 mil population) once population stretch goal is achieved. So, buy properties once cooling measures are relaxed. Your rental will be supported by the increase in tenants (since most foreigners are working here and will not be buying). The buyers will probably be your global investors who will once again be convinced Singapore is a pro-investment country managed by a competent team of leaders well supported by its the citizens.

2) Shares in general (I will try to focus on the GLCs and banks and telcos and property/reits companies) will be a good buy for the long term as they will be able to take advantage of the increased in labour at a cheap price while having an increased consumption demand from the increase population. Your companies bottom line will be improving yearly till 10mil population stretch goal is achieved.

With this win, I have 100% confidence in the above 2 investment classes in Singapore. I will stay invested.

Friday, August 14, 2015

Property Demand Estimation done wrong.

You need to figure out how many are white collar, blue collar, construction related.

Souce :-

Pass Type As at Dec 2011
Employment Pass (EP) 176,000
S Pass 113,000
Work Permit (Total) 908,000
- Work Permit (Foreign Domestic Worker) 206,000
- Work Permit (Construction) 264,000

Total Foreign Workforce Around 1.19 million

So, let's work on these figures.
So, Work Permit holders account for almost 76% of the 1.2mil foreign workforce. These people do not need homes as they are housed within dormitories or employers' residence.

 Glad someone finally picked up the glaring over-estimation by property pundits in terms of housing demand. You can refer to the article by TodayOnline here. But like what I had said earlier... a lot of demand is self-created inside human's head. We can do all the justification but when sentiment is hot(barring any crisis), nothing will stop prices from rising. When sentiment is cool, nothing will stop prices from falling.

A common error in estimating housing demand repeatedly surfaces in research reports, news commentaries, property brochures and even academic papers.
In the commentary “Predicting the sun will rise in the east” published in TODAY on June 21, 2013, I highlighted the error of taking the 5.3 million total population, divided by the 1.2 million dwelling units — Housing and Development Board (HDB) flats and private homes — to derive an average household size of 4.4. When working on total population data and relating these figures to housing, we need to take into account the number of serviced apartments, hostels and worker dormitories in the total stock for accommodation.

In a similar vein, but coming from the opposite direction, property agents or analysts may say that since the Singapore population increased from 5,399,200 in 2013 to 5,469,700 in 2014, the additional 70,500 people would require 23,500 additional housing units on the assumption of an average household size of three people. This is also erroneous. 

Monday, June 29, 2015

Don't Succumb to Peer Pressure or Keeping up with the Jones(Tans).

Q: What's the most extravagant thing you have bought?
A Chanel bag for myself as a Mother's Day present "from my one-year-old daughter" (laughs). It was really because of peer pressure. For instance, at my office there was a lady whose bag collection could have probably bought a small HDB flat.
They would talk about what kind of bag and how many of those you should have after working in the industry for six to seven years, for instance. But I found the Chanel bag not practical and it's too small.
I learnt a life lesson - the consequences of buying something because of peer pressure. In my case it was a bag, but for my peers, it could have been an Audi, Ferrari or a house.
- See more at:

Well said. Too many people succumbed to peer pressure or having to have face. If you can afford a Ferrari and is within your means, please go ahead and do so, POWER TO YOU! :) But for the rest who have to stretch to buy that Ferrari, please think twice. It's only a car that brings you places literally. Bring you place metaphorically can only be done if you really have the substance to carry thru' , if not, that first step will always be at the doorstep and that's it.

I can afford a Ferrari, but I choose to drive a Hyundai. What about you?

Thursday, March 12, 2015

Knowing how much is enough.

Touching farewell memo from Google CFO.

The CFO in the story knew when the question came from his wife and that was the trigger.

in our case, it could be something as drastic as a life-changing event in the form of a stroke or a major accident. Or it could simply be like the CFO, a loved one telling you a simple truth or a simple question.

For my ex-colleague who was flying frequently as a regional sales, he recounted to me the following moment that triggered that question and thought process.

His moment came when his 2year old daughter was down with high fever but he had to go off that day for a business trip. So, he decided after the trip to seek a lower-paying job without regional sales included. He did not want to have the regret of not being there when it matters the most for the family and he certainly do not want to miss the chance of seeing his daughter grew up.

OF course he did not retire completely, but the message in the CFO message was not asking you to retire, it was asking you to have a work/life balance. Your work will always be there for you, but your loved ones might not and growing up moments can never be recaptured.
I remember telling Tamar a typical prudent CFO type response- I would love to keep going, but we have to go back. It's not time yet, There is still so much to do at Google, with my career, so many people counting on me/us - Boards, Non Profits, etc
But then she asked the killer question: So when is it going to be time? Our time? My time? The questions just hung there in the cold morning African air.

Tuesday, January 13, 2015

Views from a seasoned Property Investor

The investor has done the heavy lifting for us on the historical property returns from peak to peak, trough to peak and peak to trough. I share the same view and suggest waiting if you are not in need of a home.

Though I would opine HDB BTOs are always a good buy for a 1st home :)

p/s : He sells courses and I don't get referral fees from him. So don't be mistaken  :)