Friday, August 14, 2015

Property Demand Estimation done wrong.

You need to figure out how many are white collar, blue collar, construction related.

Souce :-

Pass Type As at Dec 2011
Employment Pass (EP) 176,000
S Pass 113,000
Work Permit (Total) 908,000
- Work Permit (Foreign Domestic Worker) 206,000
- Work Permit (Construction) 264,000

Total Foreign Workforce Around 1.19 million

So, let's work on these figures.
So, Work Permit holders account for almost 76% of the 1.2mil foreign workforce. These people do not need homes as they are housed within dormitories or employers' residence.

 Glad someone finally picked up the glaring over-estimation by property pundits in terms of housing demand. You can refer to the article by TodayOnline here. But like what I had said earlier... a lot of demand is self-created inside human's head. We can do all the justification but when sentiment is hot(barring any crisis), nothing will stop prices from rising. When sentiment is cool, nothing will stop prices from falling.

A common error in estimating housing demand repeatedly surfaces in research reports, news commentaries, property brochures and even academic papers.
In the commentary “Predicting the sun will rise in the east” published in TODAY on June 21, 2013, I highlighted the error of taking the 5.3 million total population, divided by the 1.2 million dwelling units — Housing and Development Board (HDB) flats and private homes — to derive an average household size of 4.4. When working on total population data and relating these figures to housing, we need to take into account the number of serviced apartments, hostels and worker dormitories in the total stock for accommodation.

In a similar vein, but coming from the opposite direction, property agents or analysts may say that since the Singapore population increased from 5,399,200 in 2013 to 5,469,700 in 2014, the additional 70,500 people would require 23,500 additional housing units on the assumption of an average household size of three people. This is also erroneous.