Sunday, April 6, 2014

I just discovered my investing HOLY GRAIL

I am not a market timer..
I am a trend follower!

Remember this by HEART! Read it everyday out loud and sing the whiplash song national anthem if possible!

1) Ride Your Winners
2) Cut Your Losses
3) Manage Your Risk
4) Use Stops
5) Stick to the System
6) File the News

Friday, March 28, 2014

Why HNWs like to leverage on Bonds to earn the spread?

This is why a lot of HNWs are leveraging to buy bonds to earn the spread since 2009. But the priority banking customers are also getting into the act since 2012 (that's about the time i started hearing people in priority banking segment talk about leverage on bonds).

Best time to buy bonds is when there is some sort of crisis (these 4 years quite frequent) where the bonds prices will go down (ie yield goes up).

This is the example of carry-cost versus the coupon yield and the spread you getting (excluding any capital gain you might get from buying under-par bonds).

Remember to assess the company behind the bonds, the type of bonds offered and not to over-leverage. For safety sake, you can use 50% LTV instead of 80% or even 90%. But  the returns can be outsized(in the realm of 40% pa) if you take a 80% LTV, though i would advise carrying another 20% in cash in your portfolio to prevent margin call.

Again, try to buy bonds at PAR or preferably under-par (to get that capital gain component if it gets recalled). You can get equity-liked return without the pain of watching prices go on a roller-coastal ride if you find Fundamental good companies. Do not invest in junk bonds unless you are sure of what you are doing.

Some small/mid-cap companies in SGX are giving so little yield to compensate for the risk you are taking that you might be better off looking elsewhere. Corporate grade bonds in Australia (big four banks) and USA can give you 5% versus the risk you are taking(forex). Though forex risk can be minimized if you take a loan in their currency(for usd).

Also, you can see why banks like you to leverage? :) You take the risk of owning the bonds, they get the benefit of getting a steady stream of income from you.

Do consider everything from a portfolio allocation perspective. The percentage allocated to bonds, equities, cash and alternatives investment according to your risk profile.

Sunday, February 16, 2014

Are we spending too much time doing active investing?

The More Important Game of LifeWhile the evidence is overwhelming that passive investing is the winning investment strategy, it's also the winning strategy in the far more important game of life. Here's why.
As a passive investor, when I come home from my busy day, I get to sit down with a glass of wine and ask my wife about her day and how my kids and grandchildren are doing. Because I didn't spend my time trying to beat the market, I also got to coach my youngest daughter's softball, soccer and basketball teams. I also read 50 to 70 books each year, do community service, play tennis, and focus on the other really important things in my life.
Investors following an active management strategy spend much of their precious leisure time watching the latest business news, studying the latest charts, reading financial trade publications, and so on. Even if they are among the few who are successful at the active management game of generating alpha (performance above risk-adjusted benchmarks), the "price" of success may have been that they lost the far more important game of life.
The question for you to consider is what are the important things in your life? Is it trying to generate extra returns through active management strategies that require you to "invest" large amounts of your time? Or are the important things in your life time spent with your loved ones, on your faith, your education, your dreams, a worthy cause, teaching or mentoring others? If you don't already know the answer, perhaps this story will help you find it.