Wednesday, August 22, 2012

There is an investment clock ! Believe it!

To those who still doubt investment clocks or timing is everything. Hear from the horse's mouth.
'Chairman of Wing Tai Holdings, Cheng Wai Keung, said: "A number of you have been asking why have we not been tendering for URA projects and we have not been active in the market for quite some time.
"I would still maintain that the correction will be coming and the way I look at it, is that if there is a cycle, if you take away that 2008 temporary drop, you smooth out the curve, it is actually the eighth or ninth year of the rise in this cycle."

So making purchasing decision especially for properties, it is better to time the market.

Anyway, here is an investment clock for commercial properties by an Aussie property guy(might be a bit biased since he's an australian).

Wednesday, August 15, 2012

Preparing for the Euro Collapse

Banks, companies and investors are preparing themselves for a collapse of the euro. Cross-border bank lending is falling, asset managers are shunning Europe and money is flowing into German real estate and bonds. The euro remains stable against the dollar because America has debt problems too. But unlike the euro, the dollar's structure isn't in doubt.

Good article and worth reading.

Saturday, August 4, 2012

Property Prices :- Can this come true?

The last leg has already been performed and now waiting for the drop below it goes up again.. can ? I am not chartist.. anyhow draw one. So if you look at it, the retracement to the 61.8% level will equate to roughly a 20% Drop in prices from current level.

Please ignore the prices in the graph below. I was doing some simple up down to see upside versus downside. But from graph, I found there is a pyschological barrier in humans on the downside after a big upside move. The fall seems to be tagged around half of the previous Rise. Just my own guesstimate. Witchery and heresy!

So, if I assumed this is the top, then we have around 20-27.5% fall before it goes flat for a few years and go up parabolic again.

Here is how much Bishan 8 would be if we adhere to my model.

So , to buy or not to buy? Just cover your backside and the upside will take care of itself. If you can find someone selling Bishan 8 at $900 and below, it is a good buy. Though highly unlikely since those who bought in 1997 would have seen all the wind and tides, this type of 25% fall is sup sup water. And they could have break even with all the rentals collected thru the years. See! Property is such a good investment if you have holding power and will have a higher probability of a positive outcome. If you bought a Bishan condo at $1600psf, a drop of 25% will bring you to $1200psf. And then you will have to compete for buyers searching for value and $900psf versus $1200psf, new vs old 99LH. And for own stay, if you can stomach the downside, what's stopping you? :)

Wednesday, August 1, 2012

Property wins the crown again. Read the article from bloomberg. I don't know how much clearer the path to riches for NORMAL people is thru' property investment over the long term. I have to emphasize normal people. People who do not possess insider knowledge of an industry, a company or adept at picking stocks. Another relevant article is the number of property billionaires/millionaires in the singapore forbes rich list this year again. For your first million, I think the probability will be higher from your property investment. But of course.. like stocks, you need to search for the one that is undervalued with respect to the others. It must be in a good growth region, etc etc.