Thursday, November 11, 2010

Investment Banking Valuation

How assets are valued - spoof video reveals shonky banking practices :) Clicked on other videos of the same series to discover banking motivations and Forecasting Techniques?

Thursday, November 4, 2010

Portfolio Update October 2010

2010 Year to date (YTD) Return
Portfolio 5.22%
Equity(Include Funds)  8.79%
Direct Shareholding12.46%
Dividend/Coupon/Interest received for 2010 YTD$156,959

Absolute Return Since Nov 2007
Portfolio 10.38%
Equity(Include Funds) 31.01%
Direct shareholding31.25%

Just a little peek into my equities performance (since Nov 2007) grouped by bourses.
1) NYSE - 26.97%
2) SGX    - 41.41%
3) HKEX - 33.33%
4) ASX    - 11.79%

Best performer so far is SGX & HKEX as I invested a bulk of the funds earlier in 2009 and subsequently into NYSE and ASX. Though appreciation of Aussie would have tip the ASX % more into the 20% region for me.

No correction so far of desired magnitude(touching indexes support lines) to partake in more equities. Hopefully a correction will come soon, though I wouldn't bet my horses on it with the impending US govt QE will keep the market running (Market will rely on past experience of QE and draw the conclusion that it will explode upwards like 2009). For the local scene, Singapore's drumming up of its own Election (as can be seen with the recent increased coverage of Election matters) will keep spirits high. Recent M&A or "intended acquisition" globally and locally (of noticeable interest is the high profile Peter Lim) might mean that most smart money are betting that the good times are back big time. No one will want to do acquisition at peak (ok.. maybe some sovereign wealth funds like that..keke).. But let's trust the smart money.. it's their money at stake.

So what are the best risk/reward for the upcoming year  (assuming bull run continues)? I would guess it will be the small & mid-caps. Everything goes up in a bull market but the magnitude of rise will be higher with the small and mid-caps than the blue chips. M&A activities is usually value-destroying for the blue-chips(with their hoards of cash for M&A citing synergy and strategic fit but often at a premium) and value-creating for the small/mid-caps (usually at the other end of the acquisition). That's my guess.

Disclaimer : I'm not adding more to equities unless there is a correction. I'm already vested 60%, no point adding more with no increased in the reward part of the risk/reward ratio.