Friday, August 29, 2014

Long Term Position in AUD

The author states his view of why to choose AUD over other currencies for the SGD currency holder looking to park his money somewhere.

I've been doing the same since 2009 when the market crashed and recovered, that year I had allocated a portion of my portfolio to AUD currency, bonds and equities and they now make up roughly 30% of my portfolio. 40% is in SGD and the remainder is split between HK and US market.

I like his blog as it is quite relevant to singaporeans. Many times, we have news telling us AUD is overpriced and it's going to go down against the USD. But many times, most of us have the bulk of our money in SGD denominated assets. We should instead be focusing on what SGD USD(i believe our currency weighting is very heavily towards USD) is doing and then USD AUD is doing and then you will have your answer to the SGD AUD pair.

I hope our local banks start dishing out more SGD related analysis instead of echoing what the global banks are talking about(always in terms of USD).

So when friends ask me what to buy, guess what I say ?
Pretty brainless AAA bet even for Singaporeans – instant carry with massively higher yields. There is little reason for the SGD to out perform the AUD now that the RBA has little onshore reason to cut further after reading into RBA Governor Steven’s remarks last week.

Friday, August 22, 2014

How to clear your work and leave by 5.30pm every day.

This article is excellent imho. 
This was what I was doing when I was an employee in one of the telcos. My senior manager had a weekly monday morning meeting for any major event and updates by the team mates. We also had to submit weekly timetable (planned and actual) to track what we've been doing. The part about putting the tasks into the calendar and booking the time is what I do personally as well. There might be a lot of meetings going on which results in changes but we have to push the task to another date. The end result of all these is probably you will achieve more or less the major tasks you planned for the week. It's very productive for those who like to procrastinate. 
Unfortunately, I have not been planning forward and tracking my time nowadays , but I am still blocking time on my calendar for tasks i need to do. Maybe I should start doing the weekly timetable again.

Sum Up

Cal's five big tips:1. To-do lists are evil. Schedule everything.2. Assume you're going home at 5:30, then plan your day backwards.3. Make a plan for the entire week.4. Do very few things, but be awesome at them.5. Less shallow work, focus on the deep stuff.

Thursday, August 7, 2014

Best Financial Tool for Singapore and global stocks.

I was using bloomberg and reuters financial website for most of my fundamental screening and analysis as well as holding my portfolio.

However, bloomberg have since modified their website to contain only the barest of financial summary while reuters still retain the most comprehensive financial statements and details one can find for free out there with a screener to boot.

Now, there is an even better option, I've been using Financial Times market portal for all my portfolio needs. I liked everything about it from their graphical illustrations of key financial figures and ratios(like shareinvestor). Comparative analysis of the company versus the index and sector. Their portfolio management tool is comprehensive with dividends tracking automatically.

Oh did i mentioned they have got the best screener available out there! and tons of other excellent stuff like economic calendar (of all countries). Fund screener, stock screener. Stock Alerts(without paying a subscription fee for it). Markit Short-selling activity...

Do go over and see what you are missing without paying of course. :) This is basically the poor man's bloomberg terminal.

Monday, August 4, 2014

Is the 1st wave of property correction beginning ?

This is the 1st time since 2009 I've seen so many mortgagee's sales (basically the whole list) in one auction.

There are some considerations if you are still interested in purchasing an investment property :-
1) Rental for residential cannot go up higher anymore unlike the last few years when it keep on increasing on the prospect of increasing demand
2) Interest rate cannot go down lower anymore unlike the last few years when FED and other Central banks are openly supporting the QE ,indirectly driving interest rate down
3) Prices cannot go up higher anymore if we have basically doubled from the 2009 low and effectively kept up with the money supply resulting from the global QEs.

Here is the three formula you need to know : 
i)   Property Yield = Rental / Purchase Price 
ii)  (+/-)Cashflow = Rental - Installment Payment(principal+interest) 
iii) ROIC (return on invested capital) = 
[ Gross Rental - Interest paid(exclude principal) - Misc Expenses)] / Downpayment   
(Often in the high 8% to double digit % if you are using max loan with 20% downpayment.)

So if you can hold for the long term and assuming rental yield never goes down, interest rate never goes up and property prices recover to your purchase price and beyond, you will actually be getting quite a good return annually at 8%++.

4) Singapore's Economic Restructuring and the impact to GDP?
5) Coming Election 2015/16 - Is it in the party's interest to have lower or higher property prices before election? The flood gates can of course be opened after election.
6) Supply > Demand? General observation there is more supply out there(unsold units or taking longer to clear new launches) and general tightening in demand thru' foreign workers/professional quota. I'm sure everyone knows the supply is built for the opening of the floodgate right after the election :) But in the meantime, Supply > Demand.

Attached is the list of mortgagee's sales.