Saturday, August 4, 2012

Property Prices :- Can this come true?

The last leg has already been performed and now waiting for the drop below it goes up again.. can ? I am not chartist.. anyhow draw one. So if you look at it, the retracement to the 61.8% level will equate to roughly a 20% Drop in prices from current level.

Please ignore the prices in the graph below. I was doing some simple up down to see upside versus downside. But from graph, I found there is a pyschological barrier in humans on the downside after a big upside move. The fall seems to be tagged around half of the previous Rise. Just my own guesstimate. Witchery and heresy!

So, if I assumed this is the top, then we have around 20-27.5% fall before it goes flat for a few years and go up parabolic again.

Here is how much Bishan 8 would be if we adhere to my model.

So , to buy or not to buy? Just cover your backside and the upside will take care of itself. If you can find someone selling Bishan 8 at $900 and below, it is a good buy. Though highly unlikely since those who bought in 1997 would have seen all the wind and tides, this type of 25% fall is sup sup water. And they could have break even with all the rentals collected thru the years. See! Property is such a good investment if you have holding power and will have a higher probability of a positive outcome. If you bought a Bishan condo at $1600psf, a drop of 25% will bring you to $1200psf. And then you will have to compete for buyers searching for value and $900psf versus $1200psf, new vs old 99LH. And for own stay, if you can stomach the downside, what's stopping you? :)

1 comment:

Siobhan said...

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Thanks and have a great day!