Cao Sir's Nuggets of Wisdom

曹仁超：未来三个月下调幅度可能在2500-2700点_财经_凤凰网

四十年投资智慧融为两本书

曹SIR做投资四十年，从5000港币起家，赚到2亿的财富，出版的《论势——曹仁超创富启示录》《论战——曹仁超创富战国策》两书，是一生投资智慧的总结，有缘者将会从中掘得黄金。《论势》是投资哲学，讲进出时机，《论战》是投资策略，讲如何实战以及管理资金。

《论势》归结为一句话就是“有智慧不如趁势”，也叫“趁势创富”。这里的“势”不局限于股市或商品市场，外延更广，包括世界大势、宏观大势、产业大势、股市大势和大众情绪，在大势分析正确的基础上，不仅可以投资股票，还能投资地产、黄金和大宗商品。

《论战》才是真正上战场实战，是战略的执行。曹SIR操作的经验之谈总结为几句话：止蚀不止赚、沟上不沟落(买涨不买跌)、宁买当头起、莫买当头跌。记者林兰

曹仁超，上海富商之后，孩童时期家道中落，40年投资生涯，将5000港元变成了2亿港元。曹先生现任香港信报有限公司董事，香港最权威的投资评论家之一，财经专栏作家

I've read his recent book, 论势, and will be waiting for 论战 to be available in Singapore.
As summarized succinctly by the journalist, the key nuggets of wisdom from Cao Sir's 40yrs experience are :-

• The trend is your friend, make use of it to grow your wealth
  
• Cut Loss and let your profit runs
• Rather average up than average down
• Rather buy the Leaders than the Losers
  

China finishing its 1st leg of bull and entering 2nd leg soon

曹仁超：未来三个月下调幅度可能在2500-2700点_财经_凤凰网

曹仁超将5000元变为2亿的“股神” A股慢牛将重回6000点

投资者最关心A股市场走势，曹SIR的看法是什么呢？曹SIR认为，A股从2008年11月开始进入新一轮牛市，本轮牛市将持续7年。2008年11月到2009年7月是牛市的第一阶段，2009年四季度有可能出现C浪下跌，但跌幅不会太大，未来三个月，下调幅度可能在2500-2700点。这同时也是建仓的机会。2010年A股进入牛市第二阶段，出现“慢牛”机会极大，牛市第二阶段上涨不会低于9个月，甚至达到两年。在慢牛阶段，A股会反复上升，但上升速度没有今年这么快，也不是普涨，有些板块涨，有些会跌。根据香港经验，牛市二期会持续两年半到三年，2010—2012年都会是牛市二期。牛二结束后，会进入牛市第三期。“我看好内地股市的长期趋势，日出东方、日落西方，在未来三到四年，上证指数就能重回6000点的高点附近。”

牛市的观点相信多数股民都会接受，大家该如何做股票，才能赚到更多的钱？曹SIR说，牛市已经从2008年11月开始了，未来七年是牛市，我相信这个牛市很强的，所以每一个调整都应该是买进的机会，所以我很相信未来三个月又是买进的时候，买进的话你就要数了，一二三四五，五个浪出现就卖出去。投资者应该“止损不止赚”和“追涨杀跌”，看大势做股票。任何时刻只要损失10%-15%必须行使止损，至于赚钱则如何多也不算多。

A well-known HK investor, affectionately known as Cao Sir, who have accumulated over sgd$40 million thru' investment stocks, properties and alternatives. Cao Sir shares the same view as Anthony Bolton, whom I mentioned in the previous post, the market has already finished its explosive 1st leg of the bull cycle for the China market. What follows is the consolidation period and any dip is an opportunity to accumulate. The 2nd leg of the bull cycle, Cao Sir predicts, will be multi-year and possibly last another 2 years based on his HK market experience. A typical bull market consists of 3 legs and the whole duration might possibly last around 7 years. Though I would be reducing my weightage in equities when the 3rd leg of the bull which is marked by rampant speculation and sky high valuations begins.

Be critical of what you hear or see.

Look out for something along the line of this phrase in How to Get Rich Courses.
"To qualify to invest in investments of the rich, you need to have at the least the nett worth of $1million. Find out how you can invest with the rich even if you do not have it in this event."

Out of boredom, I attend these seminars and I can tell you the modus operandi and I am still amazed that there are so many s*ckers out there.
1) Build Logos (credibility by reasonable logic) by telling audience how much you made and try to show evidence by flashing some cheque/invoice/dubious share certificate of value beyond reach of most audience(possible around $300k to a million).
2) Build Pathos (emotional) by recahing out to audience the fruits of being rich and how you can become one of them by learning what the trainers have to offer.
3) Build Ethos (ethical) by telling audience why they want to impart the get RICH skill to the audience, not because of money but because of ..you filled in the blanks.

It never fails to amaze me that those sc*kers don't differentiate between how the trainers achieve financial freedom (was it before or after the training course started? and how they achieve financial freedom)

Anthony Bolton: this bull market is not over - Telegraph

Anthony Bolton: this bull market is not over - Telegraph


"The bargain phase is over. But despite the fact the market is well off lows, we expect the bull market to go on. It's a multiyear bull market," Bolton said in Seoul on a trip to mentor young Fidelity portfolio managers in Asia. Bolton is president for investments at Fidelity International, an affiliate of Boston-based Fidelity Investments, the world's biggest mutual fund firm.
He said the first phase of the bull market was ending this year or by the first quarter of next year, but long-term valuations were still attractive.

Don't Get Hit By Crash at Finish Line

Don't Get Hit by Crash at Finish Line - WSJ.com

In his classic book "The Intelligent Investor," Benjamin Graham -- Mr. Buffett's mentor -- advised splitting your money equally between stocks and bonds. Graham added that your stock proportion should never go below 25% (when you think stocks are expensive and bonds are cheap) or above 75% (when stocks seem cheap).

The belief that extending your holding period can eliminate the risk of stocks is simply bogus. Time might be your ally. But it also might turn out to be your enemy. While a longer horizon gives you more opportunities to recover from crashes, it also gives you more opportunities to experience them.

But what about the probability that stocks will beat everything else, including bonds and inflation? "Who knows?" Mr. Buffett said. "People say that stocks have to be better than bonds, but I've pointed out just the opposite: That all depends on the starting price."

The Superinvestors of Graham & Doddsville

Here's the link to the article by Warren Buffett suggesting there is value in Value investing after all -> http://www.gurufocus.net/guruek/thesuperinvestors.pdf


If you have not read it before, please do it! It is good for you! :)
If you have read it already, please read again! It is good for you! :)

My list of gurus I read for my own investment knowledge.
1) Bruce Berkowitz
2) Seth Klarman
3) Tweedy Browne & Partners
4) Marty Whitman
5) Warren Buffet & Charlie Munger
6) George Soros - ok, he's not value but he's one hell of a investor
7) Marc Faber - Always nice to balance out your view with Gloom & Doom & Boom!...
8) Jeremy Gratham of GMO

Unstoppable Bull Run!

An art sculpture by Chinese artist Chen Wenling. It is titled "How to Escape" and depicts a Bull that ensured disgraced Wall Street Financier Bernie Madoff won't be going anywhere soon.

Portfolio Update September 2009

2009 Year to date (YTD) Return Portfolio 17.25% Equity(Include Funds)  72.09% Direct Shareholding 162.14% Dividend/Coupon/Interest received for 2009 $82,217 Cumulative Return Since Nov 2007 Portfolio 2.74% Equity(Include Funds) 7.78% Direct shareholding 16.6%

1) Added more australian companies to my portfolio as there are still quite a few good names that are undervalued like Stockland, TabCorp, ANZ, NAB, Telstra, Wesfarmers etc with good dividend yield of > 5%.

2) Added Noble Group for its CIC stakeholder while  GuocoLeisure & Wheelock HK are undervalued as well.

3) HK IPOs market wasn't that hot and so, not much profit to speak off there.

4) Market seems to have priced in almost all the good news now and if there are no more big economic news that confirms a recovery, the market will be trading sideways. I am still holding to cash in Aussie time deposit while waiting for any further buying opportunity should the market correct downwards.