Tuesday, October 27, 2009

China finishing its 1st leg of bull and entering 2nd leg soon

曹仁超:未来三个月下调幅度可能在2500-2700点_财经_凤凰网
曹仁超将5000元变为2亿的“股神” A股慢牛将重回6000点
香港股神曹仁超点金:A股明年将板块轮动 追随政策换挡
投资者最关心A股市场走势,曹SIR的看法是什么呢?曹SIR认为,A股从2008年11月开始进入新一轮牛市,本轮牛市将持续7年。2008年11月到2009年7月是牛市的第一阶段,2009年四季度有可能出现C浪下跌,但跌幅不会太大,未来三个月,下调幅度可能在2500-2700点。这同时也是建仓的机会。2010年A股进入牛市第二阶段,出现“慢牛”机会极大,牛市第二阶段上涨不会低于9个月,甚至达到两年。在慢牛阶段,A股会反复上升,但上升速度没有今年这么快,也不是普涨,有些板块涨,有些会跌。根据香港经验,牛市二期会持续两年半到三年,2010—2012年都会是牛市二期。牛二结束后,会进入牛市第三期。“我看好内地股市的长期趋势,日出东方、日落西方,在未来三到四年,上证指数就能重回6000点的高点附近。”

牛市的观点相信多数股民都会接受,大家该如何做股票,才能赚到更多的钱?曹SIR说,牛市已经从2008年11月开始了,未来七年是牛市,我相信这个牛市很强的,所以每一个调整都应该是买进的机会,所以我很相信未来三个月又是买进的时候,买进的话你就要数了,一二三四五,五个浪出现就卖出去。投资者应该“止损不止赚”和“追涨杀跌”,看大势做股票。任何时刻只要损失10%-15%必须行使止损,至于赚钱则如何多也不算多。

A well-known HK investor, affectionately known as Cao Sir, who have accumulated over sgd$40 million thru' investment stocks, properties and alternatives. Cao Sir shares the same view as Anthony Bolton, whom I mentioned in the previous post, the market has already finished its explosive 1st leg of the bull cycle for the China market. What follows is the consolidation period and any dip is an opportunity to accumulate. The 2nd leg of the bull cycle, Cao Sir predicts, will be multi-year and possibly last another 2 years based on his HK market experience. A typical bull market consists of 3 legs and the whole duration might possibly last around 7 years. Though I would be reducing my weightage in equities when the 3rd leg of the bull which is marked by rampant speculation and sky high valuations begins.




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