Sunday, September 16, 2012


80% of people are living in public housing and government have to upkeep the housing using taxpayer's money.
Slowly but surely, I think govt will start reducing the percentage of public housing to catered only to those in the need (ie, lower-middle income and below).
This will free up more capital for other expenditures.

That's why i think the DBSS will become like HUDC as the next step. Govt. wants to relinquish their role in using taxpayers money to maintance housing developments. So DBSS might have the option to be privatised and ebloc. 

Then the next step will be the HDB flats. The current way they are recycling capital is thru SERS of Prime HDB location. They sell the SERS land to developers and relocate the SERs owners to more ulu or cost-effective location. You can see 12 storeys of avg 1000sqft can become 25-35 storeys of avg size 800sqft. around 3 or 4 old development land size to exchange for 1 plot of new development land size. Those old flat in ulu location .. most govt have no choice but to do selective upgrading to keep them up till a date when they can ebloc them cost-effectively. And the way to do it now is .. you can see.. They are introducing 60yrs LH. So next time.. your 40yr old HDB .they will SERS and move you to a new 60yr LH.

So, in a way, if you are holding a 99LH condo, it is still safe. We are obviously going towards HK model. But 999/FH are obviously the GOLD Mine.


Anonymous said...

this is a very interesting observation.

i was recently invited to pick a flat for BTO, 90 sqm about 520 k onwards. Initially i was hesitant because of the price tag, although the location was very good.

the clincher came when i read that we are working towards 6 million population (no time frame given).

Nevertheless, I read or heard yesterday that for 2013, the government will introduce an even bigger amount of flats.

what do you think the impact will be based on your current post?

My theory is that housing prices can come down because most of them are already paid for. the government has not tried to curb speculation because it will hurt alot of the companies that Temasek or GIC has a stake in. To big to fail. Sigh

Dr JML said...

HUDC estates built in the 70s were designated for privatization by the MND as the typical estate occupies a large land parcel with no more than 3-400 units of around 1700 sq ft. With a plot ratio of 2.8 or 2.1, the MND would like to see the land redeveloped as there'd be around 1200 units with a floor area of about 900-1200 sq ft. Modern BTO or DBSS estates would have already maximized the land area. HUDCs were sold without subsidies or quotas. When first purchased, we paid close to what a private house actually cost for a 1733 sq ft apartment. Privatisation for DBSS will be unlikely at least for the next 30 years.