Thursday, September 13, 2012

Housing oversupply but sentiments overrides everything..

Originally Posted by XXXX
Taking 1million divided by 4 per family. Housing required is 250K from 2006 onwards.

From 2006 to 2011, a total of 34K of private residential was added. So where do this so called 216K families are living in? IF you look from 2006 to now, rental has jumped like crazy !!!!

You need to figure out how many are white collar, blue collar, construction related.

Souce :-

Pass Type As at Dec 2011
Employment Pass (EP) 176,000
S Pass 113,000
Work Permit (Total) 908,000
- Work Permit (Foreign Domestic Worker) 206,000
- Work Permit (Construction) 264,000

Total Foreign Workforce Around 1.19 million

So, let's work on these figures.
So, Work Permit holders account for almost 76% of the 1.2mil foreign workforce. These people do not need homes as they are housed within dormitories or employers' residence.

So we are left with the S-Pass (usually the service industry and lower wage office workers) and the EPs(the higher wages office workers).

The S-Pass holders usually congregates with each other(most without bringing family over) with min. of 4 pax per unit (but it is 8pax usually for those waitresses and cooks and drivers etc). So, let's divide, 113k S-pass with 4 pax which will give you the max units needed to house them of 113/4 = 28k units.

The EP holders will have some families and some singles, so let's assumed half of them are families and half are singles, so the amount of units needed to be 176k/2 = 88k units.

Adding all up, you need a supply of around 28k + 88k = 116k units.

Do not, this is the demand needed. Not the SUPPLY created during the boom years like you mentioned.

So now matching supply with demand.. we should use the SUPPLY of ALL outstanding units in singapore up for rental (HDB + condos, we'l ignore landed).

Again, googling for some info , turns up ..

Condos completed units
- available 270.9k
- occupied 254.7k
- vacant 16.1k
- Vacancy rate 6%

Condos supply pipeline
- under construction 49.5k
- planned (ignored this since planned can be deferred but under construtions mean supply will be created definitely).

This is only the condos hor.. i haven't counted the hdbs.

Assumed, one third of condos(33.33%) are rented out while the rest are actually owner-occupied. So there is an availability for rental of 270.9k/3 = 90.3k units available for rent.

Ok, let's assumed only EP holders rent private.. you will see from te previous research, we need 88K units. Now, we have 90.3k units COMPLETED(not counting the under construction ones), so the demand and supply is matched. Surprising... if you look at 88k/90.3k = 97.5% of all rental units available.

The Vacancy rate was indicated as 6%. So, I can only assumed I might have over-estimated the demand while the real figure(the vacancy rate) reflects an oversupply of 6%.

Now, the S-Pass holders.. I am lazy to do research laready... so i just hantam.. 80% of households are living in HDB.. we know roughly it's 5% landed, 15% condos, 80% public..

So, there's 1.44mil HDB available. But let's be conservative and take the 2010 numbers from Mah Bow Tan .
It is 800k HDB households.

So S-pass needs 28k HDB units.. so it's 28/800 = 3.5%. 
Only 3.5% of HDB households need to rent out their flat to meet the demand.

Ok.. so now... I am wondering.. do you thiink there is really an under-supply of housing if govt restricts the no. of EP and WP and SP into singapore for the next few years.. (if they do).

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